When Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic became an overnight sensation in European basketball, the first player he was typically compared to was former Rockets and Nets and current LA Clippers guard James Harden, which is about the highest level of praise a prospect can receive given Doncic was only 17 years old and Harden was entering his prime with Houston.
The connecting lines were obvious: both were and are isolation-heavy lead guards who play with speed and are equally adept at distribution as they are at scoring.
They generate mismatches out of the pick-and-roll while attacking the basket, and their tactics of using screens are similar in that they can both score from the midrange or throw lobs cutters or players in the dunker position.
Which player has the highest peak? It’s hard to say. For example, Doncic is still at the top of his game, whereas Harden is nearing the end of his career.
For instance, consider James Harden’s 2018-19 season, which was not his MVP campaign but was likely his finest in terms of statistics. The Rockets’ leading scorer averaged 36.1 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.6 rebounds while shooting 61.6% true.
Houston ended 53-29 and fell in the Western Conference Semifinals to the eventual Western Conference Champion Golden State Warriors, who went on to lose in the NBA Finals to the Toronto Raptors.
Harden’s playoff performances, which have been heavily lambasted, are, to put it mildly, exaggerated. He averaged 34.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in this series against the Warriors, scoring at least 29 points in each game.
Luka Doncic’s most impressive season was his most recent, when he averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists on 61.7% true shooting. While the numbers are equal, Doncic’s assist and rebounding figures stand out more, whereas Harden’s 36.1 points per game on nearly identical true shooting makes him the more spectacular scorer.
Statistically, they are extremely similar. The distinctions, while not obvious, emerge when looking at play styles. When hitting the rim, Prime Harden employed a downhill driving strategy, using his quickness to beat opponents off the dribble with a very fluid handle.
Doncic plays faster and exploits his size, weighing 30 pounds more than Harden, to bully his way to the rim. The Slovenian is also more effective in the midrange than Harden was in his heyday, which is another rationale for his assist numbers being higher.
His ability to score around the nail area makes defending him from the post that much more difficult since it allows him to throw lobs to his bigs.
Another issue to consider is the squad each player had around him during these seasons; Doncic had a greater supporting cast in 2023-24 than Harden did in 2018-19, which explains the disparity not only in scoring (advantage Harden) but also in assists (advantage Doncic). Harden was asked to do more than Doncic since Doncic has Kyrie Irving to help balance the offensive burden.
Overall, it’s difficult to draw a line in the sand between two Hall-of-Fame players who play with similar intensity on the court. The stat lines can be nitpicked: Harden has a higher career three-point percentage (36.4% vs. 34.7%), Doncic averages more rebounds (8.7 vs. 5.6), and the two have virtually identical peak true shooting rates.
At this point in his career, Doncic is not far enough along to make a genuine distinction, but given his trajectory, it’s difficult to argue that Doncic will not finish up with more awards than the highly decorated James Harden. The next steps for Dallas’ standout guard are to match Harden’s MVP status and to win an WNBA title.
